Forecasting Agile Project End Dates with Burn-Up Charts and Velocity

One of the most critical challenges in Agile project management is predicting when a project will be completed. While Agile emphasizes flexibility and responding to change, stakeholders still need reliable forecasts. That’s where burn-up charts, combined with team velocity, become indispensable.

The visual tool shown above demonstrates a data-driven way to project completion dates using three forecast lines: “likely,” “sooner than likely,” and “later than likely.” Let’s break down how this works and how you can apply it to your own projects.

What is a Burn-Up Chart?

A burn-up chart tracks the cumulative work completed over time against the total scope. It typically includes:

• Total Scope (black dashed line): The goal—total amount of work to be delivered (in this case, 401 story points of work).

• Scope Completed (blue solid line): Actual progress made, updated every sprint.

• Projection Lines:

  • Short Projection (Green) – An optimistic forecast if the team continues at better than recent velocity.

  • Middle Projection (Blue) – A most likely estimate based on the team’s average velocity.

  • Long Projection (Red) – A conservative forecast, assuming lower-end velocity or disruptions.

Step-by-Step: Predicting End Dates Using Velocity

1. Determine Velocity

Velocity is the amount of work completed per sprint.  In the template you will find:

• The team steadily increases scope completed each sprint.

• By Sprint 7, they’ve delivered 401 units, matching the total scope line.

To project forward:

• Calculate the average velocity from completed sprints. E.g., if the team delivered 401 units over 7 sprints, their average velocity is ~57 units per sprint.

• Identify best-case and worst-case sprints to determine the range (e.g., 65 high, 45 low).

2. Draw Projection Lines

Using this range of velocities:

• Short Projection (Green): Forecast using the highest velocity observed (projects finishing early).

• Middle Projection (Blue): Forecast using the average velocity (most likely outcome).

• Long Projection (Red): Forecast using the lowest velocity (accounting for risk or slowdowns).

These lines extend past the current sprint, predicting when the scope line will intersect with the scope target.

3. Interpret the Forecast

In the chart:

• The Short Projection hits the 401-unit mark just before Sprint 7, suggesting early completion.

• The Middle Projection intersects the total scope line around Sprint 7, confirming it's the expected finish.

• The Long Projection would’ve hit the target by Sprint 8, indicating worst-case scenario still falls within a manageable delay.

This range helps teams communicate with confidence: “We expect to finish in Sprint 7, possibly a bit sooner or later depending on how upcoming sprints go.”